Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
